Three option models, with the arithmetic shown

These are arithmetic models over illustrative inputs. They are not statistically validated predictions and carry no probability claim. Adjust the inputs and the totals recompute live.

Story A — Arena smoke control recovery

Scenario values do not change the published SAR 5.75bn construction award for the Arena Superblock.

Scenario

Illustrative slip to recover: 5 weeks

Carrying cost per week: SAR 1.9m

Formula: total = direct cost + (max(0, slip weeks − weeks recovered) × carrying cost per week). Every input is an illustrative demonstration value.

Lowest modelled total

Scenario

Option 2 — parallel witness testing · SAR 11.4m

Option	Direct cost	Weeks recovered	Residual delay cost	Modelled total	Arithmetic
Option 1 — sequential re-testRectify dampers to revision C04, then re-test in the existing sequence.Assumptions: No additional witness resource; Re-test follows rectification with no overlap; Baseline slip of 5 weeks retained	SAR 4.2m	0	SAR 9.5m	SAR 13.7m	direct cost 4,150,000 + (max(0, 5 − 0) weeks × 1,900,000 per week)
Option 2 — parallel witness testingSplit the bowl into two witness zones and test in parallel while rectification continues.Assumptions: Second independent witness available; Zones can be isolated for smoke test; No additional damper supply required	SAR 7.6m	3	SAR 3.8m	SAR 11.4m	direct cost 7,600,000 + (max(0, 5 − 3) weeks × 1,900,000 per week)
Option 3 — accelerated replacementAir-freight replacement damper assemblies and run double-shift installation with parallel testing.Assumptions: Factory slot released within 10 days; Double-shift permit granted; Parallel witness testing also adopted	SAR 11.8m	5	SAR 0	SAR 11.8m	direct cost 11,800,000 + (max(0, 5 − 5) weeks × 1,900,000 per week)

Story B — Diriyah Square heritage-facing stone options

Cheap-and-slow against balanced against expensive-and-fast, with explicit arithmetic and the heritage review gate stated for each. The published SAR 2.249bn award is unchanged by any of this.

Scenario

Area to heritage-facing elevations: 8,900 m²

Prolongation per week: SAR 1.2m

Formula: total = (rate per m² × area) + (heritage and procurement weeks × prolongation per week).

Option	Rate	Material	Programme weeks	Programme cost	Modelled total	Heritage gate
Economy substitutionLowest rate, slowest heritage route — gate outcome not assured in the scenario.	SAR 980/m²	SAR 8.7m	10	SAR 12.0m	SAR 20.7m	requires review
Balanced hybridSpecified stone on heritage-facing elevations, substitute elsewhere.	SAR 1,310/m²	SAR 11.7m	6	SAR 7.2m	SAR 18.9m	likely to pass
Specified premiumAs specified; fastest gate, highest rate.	SAR 1,620/m²	SAR 14.4m	4	SAR 4.8m	SAR 19.2m	pre-approved

Heritage gates are reviewed in the heritage and specification module; the related variation sits in the variation register.

Story C — SAMoCA payment application assessment

Claimed against evidence-supported amounts, line by line, with retention on the stated basis.

Scenario

Claimed (line arithmetic)

Scenario

SAR 29.8m

Evidence-supported

Scenario

SAR 28.7m

Difference

Scenario

SAR 1.2m

Not a finding against any real party.

Retention at 5%

Scenario

SAR 1.4m

28,667,250 × 5% = 1,433,362.5 retained; net 27,233,887.5

Full line detail, flags and evidence links are in the payment application check. Current demo role: CEO.